GBM POLITICAL WATCH | ROAD TOWN, Tortola, VI
Former House of Assembly Speaker Julian Willock’s determination to contest the Third Electoral District is adding another layer of intrigue to what is shaping up to be a potentially competitive four-person race, with questions surrounding his Virgin Islands Party (VIP) nomination, the future of incumbent Julian Fraser, and the level of support emerging for the opposition candidates.
The Third District contest could feature National Democratic Party (NDP) candidate Aaron Parillon, People’s Leadership Movement (PLM) candidate Clifton Forbes, incumbent Deputy Premier Julian Fraser of the VIP, and Willock, whose party nomination remains unconfirmed.
At this stage, however, the race remains fluid, particularly because Fraser has not publicly closed the door on seeking another term and Willock has yet to be officially selected by the VIP to contest the constituency.
Willock and the VIP Nomination Question
Willock’s declaration that he intends to contest the Third District has brought back memories of his unsuccessful attempt to secure a place on the VIP’s At-Large slate ahead of the 2019 general election.
In that contest, Willock sought to become one of the party’s four At-Large candidates but was not selected by Congress. The experience demonstrated that longstanding party membership and political ambition do not automatically translate into a place on an election slate.
Now, several years later, Willock is again seeking a place on the VIP’s ticket, this time in a constituency represented by Fraser since 1999.
Willock has said he intends to go through the party’s Congress process and has rejected the suggestion that he would simply leave the VIP if he failed to secure the nomination.
Yet the question remains: Will Congress Select Him?
Political talk circulating around the Territory suggests that there may be reservations within the VIP about including Willock on its slate. GBM has not independently verified those claims, and there has been no confirmed public decision by the party to exclude him.
Nevertheless, his announcement has placed the question of candidate selection squarely before the party.
Can a prospective candidate effectively announce himself into a seat before the party’s own selection process has run its course?
That question has historical resonance in the Virgin Islands.
A Political Flashback to Prince Stoutt and Alvin Christopher
Willock’s declaration recalls a reported episode around 1995 involving the late Prince Stoutt and Alvin Christopher.
As the story has been recounted, the VIP intended to put Christopher forward for the Second District, but the sitting representative, Prince Stoutt, went on ZBVI radio and announced himself as the party’s candidate.
The episode has become a useful point of comparison in discussions about the relationship between a political party’s internal machinery and the ambitions of individual politicians.
The circumstances surrounding the Third District today are not necessarily identical. However, the underlying issue is familiar: the party must ultimately determine whom it wishes to represent its interests at the polls.
Willock may declare his intentions, but the VIP Congress must decide whether he receives its endorsement.
Fraser’s “Fat Lady” Has Yet to Sing
While Willock’s nomination remains uncertain, the larger question in the Third District is whether Julian Fraser will seek another term.
The veteran legislator, who now serves as Deputy Premier and Minister for Environment and Sustainable Development, has represented the district continuously since 1999.
In June 2026, Fraser directly addressed speculation that it was time for him to step aside. Speaking at a community event in Fish Bay, he declared that “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings — and she hasn’t sung yet.”
His remarks made clear that he had not ruled out another campaign and believed there was still work to be done.
Fraser also challenged those calling for him to retire to consider whether they were prepared to step forward and take on the responsibility of representing the district.
His eventual decision could significantly alter the dynamics of the contest.
If Fraser seeks re-election, the other candidates will have to confront an incumbent with nearly three decades of district representation. If he retires, the race would enter a different phase, with the competing candidates seeking to establish themselves as his successor.
For now, the political betting continues, with observers waiting to see whether the Deputy Premier will return to the ballot or finally pass the baton.
GBM’s Informal District Pulse Check
Guavaberry Media has been conducting informal conversations and surveys among residents in the Third District to gauge the emerging mood surrounding the possible candidates.
While these exercises are not scientific polling and should not be interpreted as a representative measure of district-wide voting intentions, the early picture emerging from those conversations suggests a contest that may be developing primarily between the NDP and PLM candidates.
Parillon, who has contested the Third District in previous elections, has been ratified by the NDP. Forbes, a retired public officer with experience in education and construction, has been announced as the PLM candidate.
Based on the informal feedback GBM has received so far, Willock appears to be attracting the least favourable response among the prospective contenders canvassed.
That observation must be treated cautiously. Informal surveys can be affected by the number of people consulted, where and how conversations take place, and whether those willing to participate reflect the wider electorate.
Still, the feedback raises a question for Willock: whether his public profile and political experience will translate into meaningful support among Third District residents if he secures the VIP nomination.
The same caution applies to the apparent NDP–PLM contest. With Fraser’s intentions unresolved and the VIP nomination still pending, it would be premature to treat the current picture as a settled two-way race.
A constituency With Several Competing Considerations
The Third District presents an unusual combination of circumstances.
Parillon is seeking another opportunity under the NDP banner. Forbes enters the race as the PLM’s announced candidate. Fraser has a long record of district representation and currently occupies one of the most senior positions in government. Willock, meanwhile, is seeking to establish himself as the VIP’s choice while his nomination remains uncertain.
The candidates will ultimately have to persuade residents that they understand the district’s needs and can deliver on issues such as infrastructure, water, employment, housing, opportunities for young people and community development.
For Fraser, the immediate question is whether he intends to continue.
For the VIP, it is whether Willock will be selected to contest the seat.
For Parillon and Forbes, the challenge is to convince residents that they can offer the representation the district requires.
And for Willock, the task may begin even before a campaign officially takes shape: establishing that his ambition to serve the Third District is matched by support from the people he hopes to represent.
The Waiting Game Continues
The Third District race remains one to watch as the Territory moves towards the next general election, constitutionally due by 2027.
The VIP’s eventual decision on Willock, Fraser’s answer to the retirement question, and the continuing development of the NDP and PLM campaigns will determine how the contest takes shape.
For now, the “fat lady” has yet to sing, the VIP Congress has yet to confirm Willock, and the informal feedback gathered by GBM suggests that the district’s political mood is still developing.
The question is no longer simply who wants to represent the Third District. It is who will secure the nomination, who will enter the race, and who can convince residents that they deserve their support.